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AI Adoption, Productivity, and the Missing Middle - A review of Banca d’Italia QEF 1009 on artificial intelligence
A review of Banca d’Italia’s QEF 1009 paper highlights that while nominal AI adoption among Italian firms rose from 27% in 2025 to 32% in early 2026, intensive
Key takeaways
- AI use among Italian firms rose from 27 percent in 2025 to 32 percent at the beginning of 2026.
- Intensive integration of AI remains limited at about 5 percent.
- Short-run firm-level analysis does not yet identify systematic effects on revenue per employee, employment, or investment.
- AI adoption may follow a productivity J-curve where integration costs and organizational changes precede measurable gains.
- Public support should focus on removing conversion bottlenecks rather than merely increasing nominal AI adoption counts.
A review of Banca d’Italia’s QEF 1009 paper highlights that while nominal AI adoption among Italian firms rose from 27% in 2025 to 32% in early 2026, intensive organizational integration remains low at around 5%. Short-run econometric analysis shows no systematic effects on revenue per employee, employment, or investment, suggesting that AI adoption follows a productivity J-curve where integration costs and organizational changes precede measurable gains.
By the numbers
- 27%
- AI use among Italian firms in 2025
- 32%
- AI use among Italian firms in early 2026
- 5%
- Italian firms with intensive AI integration
How it unfolded
- AI use among Italian firms was at 27 percent
- AI use among Italian firms rose to 32 percent
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