Crypto
Bitcoin Has Two Ticking Time Bombs, Ex
Former Meta and Google engineer Patrick Shyu has warned that Bitcoin faces two major unmitigated threats: quantum computing and decaying miner incentives.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin faces two ticking time bombs: quantum computing and decaying miner incentives.
- 95% of all Bitcoin has already been minted.
- A lack of fee revenue to replace block rewards could cause miners to switch off, weakening network security.
- A powerful enough quantum computer could use Shor's algorithm to derive private keys from public keys.
- Venture investor Nic Carter points to a potential quantum 'Q-Day' around 2035, while other research shifts it closer to 2030.
Former Meta and Google engineer Patrick Shyu has warned that Bitcoin faces two major unmitigated threats: quantum computing and decaying miner incentives. Shyu argues that because 95% of Bitcoin is already minted and a robust fee economy has failed to materialize, the network faces a potential death spiral as block subsidies continue to shrink. Additionally, he highlighted the threat of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's cryptography, noting a lack of a cohesive developer plan to coordinate a network-wide migration. Shyu also revealed he sold all of his own Bitcoin holdings after suffering massive financial losses due to excessive leverage during a 50% drop from Bitcoin's October 2025 peak near $126,000.
In their words
“Satoshi never imagined wrapped Bitcoins, never imagined most coins just sitting there, not moving, not paying fees, not getting attention.”
“We couldn’t even stop each other from jamming junk metadata onto the chain, and this is who would have to coordinate a network-wide migration under deadline with hundreds of billions of dollars on the line”
By the numbers
- 3.125 BTC
- Current Bitcoin block subsidy reward
- 95%
- Percentage of all Bitcoin already minted
- $30
- Daily mining revenue per PH/s
- -18%
- Hashprice crash in late June
- $126,000
- Bitcoin peak price in October 2025
How it unfolded
- Bitcoin price peaked near $126,000
- Miners absorbed an 18% hashprice crash
- Next Bitcoin halving expected
- Nic Carter's predicted Q-Day for quantum computing
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Common questions
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- 95% of all Bitcoin has already been minted.
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